Watch out for the PV play!

I've been thinking a lot lately about solar power: what will it look like in the short term as a result of the credit crisis and what's it going to look like over the long term?  Here's what I think, that in the short team poly-crystalline and mono-crystalline PV systems will do better than concentrated solar (CSP) because of the lack of funding for the latter - CSP's are complex, utility-scale systems that require "mucho dinero" to setup and run.  Silicon-based PV systems, on the other hand, require much smaller investments and are easier to install/maintain, and therefore, will do better in the short-term.  

Going forward, I think PV systems will have their place, especially, if "dirty silicon" cell production takes off, but I also think thin film technologies will do very well, too.  Right now, they're not as efficient as silicon-based PV systems (4-8% vs 15-20%), but you can spread them across a larger surface area and generate as much power as a roof-based only "more expensive" PV system - and generate equal power for less cost.