I had some free time last night in-between bathing the kids and helping my wife pick up the house, so I decided to model what would the returns would look like if Mexico removed the subsidy and used it instead as a REC (Renewable Energy Credit) payment. I used the current incentive level in Mexico City for an industrial rooftop solar project as my beta and the results were encouraging - the project NPV was positive and the IRR looked good.
In addition, the simple payback looked acceptable for a renewable energy investor in Latin America. If you factor in CER (Certified Emission Reduction) income, the returns get even better, too. I know I should have been helping my wife put the kids to sleep, but I couldn't resist taking a look at what a REC payment would do to the returns of a distributed generation (DG) photovoltaic project.
Is this a possibility, though? What would the impact be on industry? Well, at first glance, by removing the subsidy you would penalize the largest energy users (right?), because now they’re paying $.12/kWh instead of $.9kWh. Their responses to higher electricity prices would be to either invest in on-site renewable generation, energy efficiency retrofits or just use less electricity. Using less electricity is probably not a bad thing, but if using less electricity meant you produced less, then that would have an impact on jobs and that's unacceptable politically.
Therefore, policy makers might look at increasing the payroll tax credit to 100% in year one for investments in onsite renewable energy generation instead of the current 50%. By removing the cap on the payroll tax credit, you would reward companies for investing in these types of projects and for not laying off workers. I’m not saying this is perfect solution (the consumer-side of the economics hasn't even been addressed), but given the current discussion’s taking place about whether or not Mexico can continue to use 6-8% of it’s public budget to subsidize electricity, turning it into a REC payment is certainly an option at least from a project developer's point of view...